In the aftermath of the 25th June 2024 civil unrest an unprecedented wave of youth led demonstrations that culminated in the dramatic breach of Kenya’s Parliament many commentators were quick to declare President William Ruto’s political fortunes extinguished.
For weeks, the nation teetered on the precipice of a constitutional breakdown, with some analysts warning that a civilian revolt could have invited military intervention, a scenario that would have plunged the republic into uncharted territory.
It was at this juncture that Raila Odinga, long time opposition doyen, stepped in to steady the political landscape and stave off a drift towards illegitimacy.
By all accounts, the feared collapse of constitutional authority was averted, almost providentially.
What followed was a gradual but unmistakable re emergence of President Ruto’s political stature.
His rapprochement with Raila Odinga once unthinkable recalibrated the national mood and offered the administration valuable breathing space.
Yet, perhaps the most consequential accelerant to Ruto’s resurgence came from an unlikely source: his then Deputy President, Rigathi Gachagua.
Gachagua’s abrasive political posture, anchored in overtly tribal rhetoric and the controversial “Murima” narrative, increasingly alienated both national institutions and broader constituencies.
His relentless confrontations with independent organs including the National Intelligence Service, the Directorate of Criminal Investigations, and senior officers of the National Police Service cast him as a destabilising actor within the very government he served.
The culmination of these missteps was his impeachment, an event that not only ended his incumbency but also recast him as a figure at war with his own political identity.
Following his ouster, Gachagua retreated to form the Democratic Congress Party (DCP), yet the outfit has struggled to gain meaningful traction beyond pockets of the old Central Kenya region.
Notably, in recent by elections in Mt Kenya’s Mbeere constituency an area teeming with political parties including PNU, Jubilee, CCM, and NARC-Kenya the former deputy president failed to field even a single candidate.
This conspicuous absence has revived longstanding questions about his credibility, his ability to build inclusive coalitions, and his often repeated demand for “50 per cent of government shares” in a future administration.
Critics argue that such ethnically skewed expectations are incompatible with a nation comprising more than 45 communities.
These realities have complicated the presidential prospects of Kalonzo Musyoka, the United Opposition’s flag bearer, deputised by George Natembeya.
Although Kalonzo enjoys respect as a diplomatic figure with broad national goodwill, the perceived albatross of Gachagua’s involvement whether tacit or overt has unsettled some independent voters.
According to political analyst John Mwambego, a Professor at the School of Law and a Mombasa based scholar, Kalonzo Musyoka possesses a formidable pathway to victory in 2027but only if he runs without Rigathi Gachagua tethered to his coalition.
Mwambego argues that Kalonzo, on his own merit, could pose President Ruto a serious electoral threat owing to his broad appeal and the substantial backing he commands across the wider Western axis, including Nyanza, Western, Trans Nzoia, South Rift, and Turkana.
However, he contends that Gachagua’s strained relations with voters in these same regions severely undermine Kalonzo’s prospects, inadvertently driving communities that might otherwise consider a Kalonzo presidency to default back to President Ruto.
In Mwambego’s view, Kalonzo’s alliance with Gachagua transforms what could have been a fiercely competitive contest into a comparatively manageable test for the incumbent.
As one voter, Njeri Wainana a business lady in Kisauni Mombasa, told our reporters, “Kalonzo is a decent man and I can vote for him. But if he is surrounded by people demanding half the government for one region, what remains for the rest of us Taita, Turkana, Samburu, Teso? In that case, I would rather stick with Ruto.”
Similar sentiments were echoed by political observers Alex Mutinda and Moses Wamalwa, who argued that Kalonzo’s chances would be significantly stronger without the perception of regional monopolisation hanging over his coalition.
The United Opposition, meanwhile, has attempted to project internal cohesion by offering pre negotiated power-sharing arrangements.
Key figures such as Eugene Wamalwa, Martha Karua, Justin Muturi, and Fred Matiang’i are reportedly earmarked for senior posts including the National Assembly Speakership, the Senate Speakership, the Office of the Attorney General, and the position of Prime Cabinet Secretary.
While this may signal organisational maturity, it has simultaneously revived fears of elite bargains overshadowing national inclusivity.
In contrast, President Ruto approaches the 2027 contest from a position of comparative stability.
Bolstered by renewed public approval currently estimated at 58% he benefits from a government perceived as more coherent following Gachagua’s departure.
Central to this stability is the role of Prime Cabinet Secretary and Foreign Affairs Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi, whose technocratic profile and disciplined political temperament have earned him admiration even among opposition sympathisers.
Mudavadi’s stewardship of Kenya’s international engagements has amplified the country’s diplomatic stature, leading to multiple continental and global commendations for President Ruto.
Within government circles, it is widely whispered that Mudavadi is the preferred successor in the post Ruto political architecture projected for 2032.
Mudavadi’s capacity to consolidate Western Kenya together with Speaker Moses Wetang’ula has further fortified Ruto’s national coalition.
Their presence ensures that the Western bloc, traditionally volatile and highly contested, remains firmly within the ruling fold, thereby denying the Opposition a critical numerical advantage.
Taken together, these dynamics illustrate why President Ruto enters the 2027 electoral cycle with a discernible edge.
A once fractured administration has regained footing; a once emboldened Opposition now grapples with internal contradictions; and the spectre of ethnically anchored power claims has inadvertently driven swing voters back towards the incumbent.
While Kenyan politics remains famously fluid, the confluence of institutional cohesion, regional consolidation, and the public’s appetite for stability appears, for now, to favour William Ruto’s re election prospects.